A busy week of fundamental news of the euro to dollar pair with the highlights of course this week being the the ECB rate decision on Thursday, followed by the last Non Farm Payroll release for 2009 on Friday, with the week really getting underway with the German unemployment data and retail sales figures which are both expected to show an improving economic picture as the European markets begin to recover from the recession and start to turn the corner into growth, lead as aways by the US. These numbers are followed later in the day by US pending home sales and the key ISM Manufacturing index which is forecast to come in lower than last time at 54.7 against a previous of 55.7, which whilst being less than positive if correct, still remains above the key 50 level which indicates an economy in expansion, which is the key point.

Wednesday is all about the ADP non farm payroll numbers which often provide an excellent guide to to the more important NFP data released by the Department of Labor on Friday, as these numbers are based on payroll data from ADP which provides payroll services to many corporations in the US. They use the data collected from their customers to derive the overall employment estimations which as a result can be extremely accurate and therefore provide an excellent guide to Friday’s numbers. The forecast for Wednesday is for a further fall once again, from -203, 000 last time down to -145,000 this time.

Thursday sees the ECB interest rate decision released, and whilst nobody expects any changes in interest rates before the year end, it will be interesting to note the tone of the statement from the Bank which always accompanies the rate decision, and is often more important than the decision itself.  Finally on Friday we have the big one – the NFP release which always makes for an interesting end to the week, although I often feel it is entirely meaningless and forgotten with hours of the release, but at least it provides an interesting diversion ahead of the weekend!

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