Fundamental Forex AnalysisEuro Dollar

Tomorrows fundamental news on the economic calendar starts early for Europe with the release of the Final GDP numbers for Germany, always an important set of data, but as these figures have already been released to the market in the Preliminary version ten days earlier, their impact on the market tends to be muted and tomorrow will be no exception – the forecast is for the figures to be the same as last time at 0.3%, and comes on the back of the preliminary numbers which surprised many economists and analysts with a surprising and unexpected growth figure which may have since queried as being correct, so tomorrow should be interesting. The only other item of fundamental news for Europe is released deep in the forex trading session with the NBB Business climate from Belgium, data compiled by the Bank of Belgium, and yet another composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, services and trade related firms. The forecast for tomorrow is for a slight improvement on last month’s figures at -19.7 against a previous of -22.8, so again we are limping towards the break even point at zero at which point the indicator suggest market condition are improving. Should the number be better than expected then this could be good news for the Euro.

For the US dollar we have a much busier day than yesterday, with four items of news of which the most important is the CB Consumer Confidence Index, followed by the S & P, the HPI and Richmond Manufacturing Index in order of importance. The CB Consumer confidence is a composite index based on a survey of around 5000 households who are asked to rate current market conditions,including labour availability, business conditions, and the overall economy, and the reason it is so important is that is gives us a snapshot of consumer spending which in turn will indicate any future upturn in the economy. Whilst a positive number tomorrow would normally be good for the US dollar, the reverse has been true in the last few months with bad news triggering the buying of US bonds. The forecast for tomorrow is 48.1 against a previous of 46.6, and will be eagerly awaited by the markets for any fundamental forex analysis of the numbers.

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