Tiptoeing through the fundamental news from the economic calendar from this morning all Eurozone numbers came in worse than expected (other than Italian retail sales which posted much better than expected figures – as an Italian why does this not surprise me!!)  which has, so far, failed to dent this morning Euro’s rally.  The market is now waiting for some very important numbers starting with the Chicago PMI followed shortly afterwards by the red flag CB consumer confidence data.

The PMI data is a leading indicator and is based on a survey of purchasing managers in Chicago which asks them to rate the current business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices and inventories and is released monthly.   This month’s figures will be particularly interesting given the problems in the US auto industry.  The data source is Kingsbury International and subscribers to the service receive the news 3 mins before the public release allowing them to trade the news in advance.  A figure above 50 indicates expansion whilst below indicates contraction and the forecast for this afternoon is for 34.3, virtually flat on last month’s number of 34.2.  15 mins later we have the CB Consumer Confidence number released by the Conference Board and again is a survey this time of 5000 households asking for a response on the current and future economic conditions.  Again this is considered a leading indicator and if the actual is better than forecast then this should be good news for the dollar.  Forecast is 26.8 against a previous of 25.

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