The main focus of attention for fundamental news on the economic calendar for today, for the euro vs dollar centres on the US market with a string of data due for release shortly starting with Core Durable Goods, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and finally ending this afternoon with Crude Oil Inventories.  Starting with the first of these, namely Core Durable Goods these are forecast to come in -0.4% against a previous of -0.7% and the figure represents the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable items but excludes large transport items such as aircraft, trains etc, and is generally felt to provide a better gauge of purchase order trends as a result.  Market impact can be high when taken with the other news items.  At the same time we have the weekly unemployment claims released by the Department of Labor and these are forecast to show a small fall from last time although analysts are divided as the latest auto industry layoffs may not have been included this time around.  Finally this data set is completed with the Durable Goods orders which are forecast at 0.1% against a previous of -0.8%.

Later in the day we expect the new home sales which are expected to show a small increase on last month but only by 7k or so.   We then have the crude oil inventories which always seem to divide the analysts although the consensus appear to be that we will see a small draw this week but it is the refining capacity and finished products which may throw up a surprise.

Meantime in Europe we have had the German unemployment change which came in better than expected with the unemployment rate falling to 8.2% and the consumer confidence figures coming in pretty much on target at -31 against an expectation of -30.   With the recent strengthening of the US dollar should the US data come in better than expected we could see a rally in equities and a reversal of US dollar fortunes.

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