The fundamental news on the economic calendar started early in Europe today with the final services PMI data coming out marginally better than expected at 43.8 against a forecast of 43.1, and the impact on the market was muted as this is a minor piece of fundamental data.  This was followed by retail sales which in contrast came in worse than expected at -0.6% falling well short of the forecast for a positive of 0.1% confirming that the worst fall in retail sales in March since world war 2 with in-store revenue falling 4.2% from a year earlier, reinforcing the gloomy picture in Europe at present.  The focus of attention for the euro dollar switches to the US later with a significant indicator due out first, namely the ADP non farm figures which often provide an excellent guide to the nfp figures released by the government on Friday.  It is interesting to note that the ADP is forecast at -644k, significantly better than last month’s forecast of -742k which could suggest a bottoming out in the jobless totals should these numbers prove to be correct.  However, it has to be noted that last month’s figures were relatively inaccurate with a forecast of -742k against the actual nfp data at -663k but this was partially attributed to data being distorted by the Easter holiday period.

Later in the afternoon we have the crude oil inventories which are again expected to show a rise although experts are divided with some even suggesting a major fall.  This discrepancy is based on yesterday’s API data which showed a fall in the crude oil stockpile.  The impact, as always, is more likely to be felt in the usd to cad currency pair.  Finally we have a speech by FOMC member Janet Yellen who is due to speak at the Australia Business Economists Breakfast Briefing in Sydney.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.