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Euro To Dollar – 13th February 2009

There is very little to report on the fundamental news for today, as the focus of attention is in Rome ( they always choose the best places for their meetings!) on the G7  meeting. In Europe the main numbers have already been released for the German GDP which came in at -2.1% against a forecast of -1.8% and a previous figure of -0.5%. As you may know the GDP measures the change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy and in general if the actual is better than forecast this is good news for the euro. The figures released this morning were the preliminary figures which provide a leading indicator of the economic health of the with the final figures released 10 days later.

In the US this afternoon we have the Consumer Sentiment index from the University of Michigan, a survey of around 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this ( similar to the German GDP) which are released 15 days apart, of which this is the preliminary report. This is the earlier of the two reports and therefore tends to have the most impact. The forecast is for 60.6 against a previous of 61.20.

I would suggest that the markets will be relatively quiet today as they wait for any significant news from the G7 meeting which will run from today and over the weekend. If you do have any open positions I would suggest these are closed and reopened on Monday as any news may filter out over the weekend with a reaction when the markets open on Sunday evening.