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Euro Dollar – Non Farm Payroll Awaits!

With the French having a national holiday today and only minor fundamental news on the economic calendar for Europe with German Trade Balance Figures coming in better than expected at 8.9bn against a forecast of 7.7bn all eyes are now on the Non Farm Payroll numbers due for release shortly.    Most market analysts are forecasting an improvement in the figures and with less dismal numbers of  -590k against a previous of -663k.  If these numbers are correct then we could be seeing another signal that we are over the worst and possibly looking at a flattening out of the horrendous downward trend which really gathered momentum in late 2007 and into early 2008.  Looking at the chart of NFP figures it would suggest that for a full recovery to take place we are probably looking at a period of least 2 years before we can any positive numbers to come through, so in reality my view is that we are looking at the early part of 2011 for a sustained improvement in the overall economy.   The market has in general, already factored in better than expected figures due partly to the ADP data released on Wednesday and coupled with a series of significant items of fundamental news both this week and last week, which have all come in ahead of forecast.  If the numbers do indeed come in as expected then we may see a temporary halt to the dollar weakness of the last few days.

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