The most important piece of fundamental news on the economic calendar for today is the release of the ADP data in the US this afternoon, which is a pre-cursor to the Non Farm Payroll figures released by the Department of Labor on Friday. The data is derived from payroll information collected by Advanced Data Processing, one of the largest payroll processing companies in the US, who provide their services to many of the largest corporations, and based on the changes in the number they then provide an estimate of the change in the employment numbers during the previous month. This data is released two days ahead of the NFP, but since its inception 3 years ago has tended to provide a relatively good guide to the more important NFP data set, and is therefore an important number for traders to watch today. The forecast is for a figure of -351,000 which is significantly better than last time at -473,000, and should the numbers be better than expected then a surge in equity markets could spell more trouble for the battered US dollar once again.

Two hours after the ADP numbers we have yet another diffusion index ( an important one this time), namely the Non Manufacturing PMI data released by the Institute of Supply Management ( ISM). The index is based on a survey of around 400 purchasing managers, which asks for their views on the current economic climate, particularly with regard to new order, prices, suppliers etc. Any figure above 50 indicates an industry in expansion and below is in contraction. The forecast for this afternoon is 48.1, an improvement on last month at 47.0. This release is combined with Factory Orders, and followed shortly afterwards by the Oil Inventories which are expected to show a further build of 0.9m barrels.  This data tends to have a muted effect on the US dollar but is more pronounced on the Canadian Loonie due to the latter’s pre-eminence as an oil producer in the energy complex.

The only significant item of news for Europe this morning is the retail sales figures which are forecast to show an improvement from the previous at 0.3% with last month’s figures showing a decline of -0.4% so further goods news for the Euro should these numbers be achieved.

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