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Euro Dollar – February 3rd 2009

There are two pieces of fundmantal news out later today which will influence the euro to dollar currency pair, and these are the PPI figures for Europe, due at 11.00am this morning, followed by the Pending Home Sales data, due at 4.00 pm this afternoon ( UK time). The PPI ( Producer Price Index) also called the the Industrial Producer Prices Index, tends to have a muted impact on the market, as both France and Germany which account for more than 50% of the European economy, release their PPI in advance. The figures which are released monthly represent the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers. If the actual is better than forecast then this is generally good for the home currency, in this case the Euro. The previous figure was -1.9% with a forecast this time of -1.1%.

The more significant figures due later are the Pending Home Sales, month on month, and measure the change in the number of homes which have exchanged but not completed, excluding new homes.The numbers are released roughly two weeks after the Existing Home Sales report, but in a way it is more forward looking, since these are properties which have not completed, and is therefore considered a leading indicator of the state of the housing market in general, and of the broader economy ( if any view were needed at the moment), as the knock on can be far reaching and includes both the finance and retail markets. Any figures are likely to be bad at the moment, whatever the indicator or the data, and the markets will simply react as to the degree of “badness” in the data. The figures last time around were -4.0% with a forecast for today of 0%. If the actual exceeds the forecast then this is generally good for the currency in this case the US dollar.