Whilst most of the fundamental news items on the economic calendar for the euro to dollar classified as medium impact the sheer number may cause some reaction later in the currency trading session.  The day stats in Europe with a speech from Deutsche Bundesbank President Weber who is also a voting member of the ECB and considered one of its most influential members.  Currency traders pay close attention to his words as he is known for dropping subtle clues as to the Bank’s thinking on interest rates and monetary policy.   During his speech the German unemployment change figures are expected and forecast at 19k against a previous of -5k.  This item of fundamental news is sometimes leaked early and is prone to inaccuracy but currency traders care because although considered a lagging indicator the number of unemployed is important as it is taken a sign of the overall health of the economy.   Later we have the Eurozone CPI Flash estimate forecast at -0.2% (same as previous) and the Italian preliminary CPI forecast at 0.0% against a previous of 0.3%.  Later this evening there is also a speech from ECB Chairman Jean Claude Trichet entitled “What should be the EU legislative agenda in the coming years taking into account lessons of the financial crisis?”

The daily currency news then shifts to the US where the most important item of fundamental news is the ADP non farm employment change which is expected to come in at -200k against a forecast of -298k.  This number has become increasingly important, not least because of its accuracy and can give traders an early insight of what is likely to come in on Friday’s NFP numbers.  Also as an important leading indicator of consumer spending (the more people employed the more they are likely to spend) it is easy to understand why currency traders place so much importance on this number.  The figure released estimates the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government and is collated from the payroll services of many US corporations – therefore a much truer picture of what is going on in the “real” economy.

Daily currency news for the euro to dollar then ends in the US with a raft of middle tier releases starting with final q/q GDP figures, final GDP Price Index, Chicago PMI and the Crude Oil Inventories.  The day ends with speeches from 2 members of the FOMC – Dennis Lockhart at the South Alabama Mitchell College in Mobile and audience questions are expected.  His topic is the outlook for the US economy.    Later FOMC Gov Donald Kohn is taking part in a panel discussion about central bank exit strategies policies at the Cato Institute in Washington and again audience questions are expected.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.