All eyes for fundamental news on the economic calendar affecting the euro to dollar, will be on the US this afternoon, with the release of the ADP employment figures, which as always are released two days before the Non Farm Payroll data on Friday from the Department of Labor, and which often provide an excellent guide to their more illustrious partner. Whilst a relatively new piece of fundamental data, the figures have proved to be a remarkably good guide to Friday’s volatile release, with the information being collected by ADP from their electronic payroll services, and as such estimates the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government. As with the NFP figures the data is released monthly and the forecast for this afternoon is for a figure of -525,000 against a previous of -491,000, suggesting that unemployment probably reached 9% in May for the first time in 25 years, reinforcing the view that although the recession may be reaching a bottom, the recovery process will be very slow and take several years to recover.

The ADP figures are followed later in the session by the Non Manufacturing PMI data from the Institute of Supply Management. This is a diffusion index based on a survey of around 500 purchasing managers who are asked to rate current business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. This is generally considered a leading indicator of the economy, and any figure above 50 suggests one in expansion, whilst below indicates one in contraction – the forecast for this afternoon is 45.1 against a previous of 43. 7, so whilst the economy is still contracting, if the forecast is correct then the rate will have slowed month on month, so once again a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Should any good news spill over into equities then this may damage the US dollar further.

Sandwiched between the two items of fundamental news, we have a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke,who is due to testify on current economic conditions, financial conditions, and the federal budget before the House Budget Committee, in Washington DC. This testimony usually comes in two parts  with the first being a prepared speech, and the second an unscripted question and answer session, and it during this latter section that the currency markets usually react to any unprompted answers.

This morning in Europe saw the release of three pieces of news, all of which were low priority for the currency markets, but included Final Services PMI, PPI and revised GDP, all of which came in very close to target and with no great surprises.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.