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Euro To Dollar – Fundamental News This Week

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Monday, November 2nd, 2009

A busy week for the euro to dollar with the three main events being the FOMC meeting and rate decision on Wednesday, which is followed on Friday by the Non Farm Payroll data as we are now starting a new month ( how time flies!!) Sandwiched between this of course is the ECB rate decision on Thursday, so a packed week of high profile news. The forex markets, and broader financial markets in general will be watching the statement from the FED on Wednesday VERY closely, following the figures from last week which suggested that the US economy has finally emerged from recession and into growth once again. It is far too early to expect a rate increase of course, but the wording of the statement will be dissected and analysed for any clues that interest rates may now rise sooner rather than later, with any such signal being helpful to the US dollar, which is currently languishing at the bottom of a waterfall on the US dollar index chart. Indeed any comments to this effect could signal the long awaited shift in market sentiment towards the US dollar which is currently occupying the position of the low yielding currency of choice for the carry trade, a place once taken by the Japanese Yen. Should the statement on Wednesday, be confirmed by some good numbers on Friday with the NFP data, then this could signal a revival for the US dollar, and fall in the euro as a result.

Monday’s fundamental news kicks off in Europe with the Final Manufacturing PMI data, a relatively minor news item, followed in the afternoon by a raft of US housing data including Pending Home Sales, Construction Spending, along with two sets of data from the ISM, one for Manufacturing Prices and the other for Manufacturing PMI. Tuesday is an extremely quiet day as the markets wait for Wednesday which also includes the ADP Non Farm Employment numbers which often provide an excellent guide to the more significant NFP figures on Friday, with the former having been compiled from payroll data – a relatively accurate measure of the numbers of people employed and the changes during the month.

Thursday is all about the ECB, and once again not so much the rate decision with the ECB once again keeping interest rates on hold, but more about the accompanying statement to the decision which is released 45 minutes after the rate announcement, and it is the statement itself which will be closely watched for any clues or signals of changes in policy. Finally we have Friday and a crowing end to a busy week with the NFP data, which may well set the tone for the US dollar over the next few months, particularly if it provides a confirmatory message to the statement on Wednesday – so a decisive week for the euro vs dollar of fundamental news on the economic calendar.

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Daily Currency News : Euro to Dollar 1 Oct 2009

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Thursday, October 1st, 2009

Although we have a raft of fundamental items on the economic calendar for the euro to dollar in today’s daily currency news the vast majority relate to the US with only 3 medium tier releases for Europe. The first of these was German Retail sales which came in worse than expected at -1.5% against a forecast of 0.0%; Final Manufacturing PMI too came in worse than expected at 49.5 versus a forecast of 50.2 & finally the unemployment rate which did manage to come in on target at 9.6%. All three items painting a picture that economic recovery in Europe is still in a fragile state.

The markets then turn to the US where we have no less than 10 items of data & two speeches. In no particular order of importance these kick off with the year on year Challenger job cuts which measures the change in the number of job cuts announced by employers and the forecast is for -13.8 against a previous of -5.7 and gives an indication of the scope and depth of the unemployment problem in the US. This number is likely to reinforce yesterday’s bad ADP figure which showed the US private sector continuing to cut payrolls. This release is quickly followed by the Unemployment Claims which measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week and the forecast here is for 532k and despite being a lagging indicator traders watch this figure as it provides an insight into the overall health of the economy. Next we have the Core PCE Price Index which is forecast at 0.1%, Personal Spending data forecast at 1.2% and Personal Income data forecast at 0.1%. At 14.00 GMT Ben Bernanke is due to testify on financial regulation before the House Financial Services Committee. His testimony comes in two parts: the first is a prepared speech which is made available on the FED’s own website at the start and this is followed by a question and answer session. It is at this point that we can expect a degree of market volatility.

At 15.00 GMT we have the ISM PMI figures which are expected to come in at 53.9 (anything over 50 is considered expansion) which is released at the same time as the Pending Home Sales which are forecast at 0.9% against a previous of 3.2%. Finally we have Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Natural Gas Storage and Total Vehicle Sales. The day rounds off with another speech from FOMC member Dennis Lockhart to the State College School of Business in Macon on the economic outlook and financial conditions. All in all a day in which the markets will be able to judge the depth (or otherwise) of the economic recovery in the US and whether this recovery is likely to be consumer led given the levels of unemployment. For currency traders the day could also indicate just how low the dollar is likely to go.

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Categories : Euro to Dollar News

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Euro to Dollar Daily Currency News 30 Sep 2009

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Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

Whilst most of the fundamental news items on the economic calendar for the euro to dollar classified as medium impact the sheer number may cause some reaction later in the currency trading session. The day stats in Europe with a speech from Deutsche Bundesbank President Weber who is also a voting member of the ECB and considered one of its most influential members. Currency traders pay close attention to his words as he is known for dropping subtle clues as to the Bank’s thinking on interest rates and monetary policy. During his speech the German unemployment change figures are expected and forecast at 19k against a previous of -5k. This item of fundamental news is sometimes leaked early and is prone to inaccuracy but currency traders care because although considered a lagging indicator the number of unemployed is important as it is taken a sign of the overall health of the economy. Later we have the Eurozone CPI Flash estimate forecast at -0.2% (same as previous) and the Italian preliminary CPI forecast at 0.0% against a previous of 0.3%. Later this evening there is also a speech from ECB Chairman Jean Claude Trichet entitled “What should be the EU legislative agenda in the coming years taking into account lessons of the financial crisis?”

The daily currency news then shifts to the US where the most important item of fundamental news is the ADP non farm employment change which is expected to come in at -200k against a forecast of -298k. This number has become increasingly important, not least because of its accuracy and can give traders an early insight of what is likely to come in on Friday’s NFP numbers. Also as an important leading indicator of consumer spending (the more people employed the more they are likely to spend) it is easy to understand why currency traders place so much importance on this number. The figure released estimates the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government and is collated from the payroll services of many US corporations – therefore a much truer picture of what is going on in the “real” economy.

Daily currency news for the euro to dollar then ends in the US with a raft of middle tier releases starting with final q/q GDP figures, final GDP Price Index, Chicago PMI and the Crude Oil Inventories. The day ends with speeches from 2 members of the FOMC – Dennis Lockhart at the South Alabama Mitchell College in Mobile and audience questions are expected. His topic is the outlook for the US economy. Later FOMC Gov Donald Kohn is taking part in a panel discussion about central bank exit strategies policies at the Cato Institute in Washington and again audience questions are expected.

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Categories : Euro to Dollar Daily Currency News

Euro To Dollar – Fundamental Forex Analysis 13th September 2009

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Sunday, September 13th, 2009

A curious start to the week for the euro to dollar forex pair, with very little real fundamental news on the economic calendar tomorrow, but instead we have several speeches from FOMC members and between these is an address from President Obama in the US markets. For Europe there are two items of news which start with the Industrial Production figures followed by the Employment Change, with the first of these forecast at -0.3%against a previous of -0.6%. The figures tend to have a relatively muted impact on the forex markets as both Germany and France which constitute over 50% of the European economy, release their figures earlier, and whilst this is considered a leading indicator, the effects are low key for the euro to dollar, and other forex pairs. The only other item for Europe is the Employment Change which is forecast at -0.8%, but again this will have limited impact on the euro dollar.

The afternoon in the US for fundamental news is punctuated by speeches starting with FOMC member Duke, followed by President Obama, and completed with a speech by FOMC Lacker and finally FOMC member Yellen. All four speeches cover some aspect of the financial crisis, so we could see some interesting reactions in the forex markets tomorrow, and indeed many forex analysts and forex market commentators are now suggesting that we may see a significant shift in the US dollar sentiment which is now widely believed to be oversold, and the speeches on Monday could provide the trigger for the US dollar to stage a recovery.

Fundamental Forex Analysis – Euro To Dollar 7th September 2009

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Monday, September 7th, 2009

With the US markets closed for a national holiday on Monday for Labor Day, the only items of fundamental news on the economic calendar for the euro to dollar are in Europe today, with two minor items scheduled for release. The first of these is a composite index, The Sentix Investor Confidence report, which is based on a survey of investors and analysts, and is generally considered to be a leading indicator of the economy. The forecast for today is -13.50, against a previous of -17.0, and with 0 being the tipping point from pessimism to optimism this data is once again expected to show that the economy and market sentiment are improving slowly, but that we have a long way to go before a full recovery is in progress. Should the actual be better than expected then this could be good news for the euro. The only other fundamental news item for today is in Germany with the release of the German Factory Orders data, which is forecast at 2.0% against a previous of 4.5%. Whilst the numbers are down from last time, this may not surprise the markets since this is a monthly data set, and therefore covers the quiet summer months, so whilst the forecast is worse than last time, this is probably only a reflection of the time of year, rather than a deeper underlying malaise.

Finally over the weekend we saw the conclusion of the G20 meeting in London, but as usual there was little meaningful news for the forex markets to absorb, and as a result markets will open today in much the same mood as Friday, but we will have to wait until Tuesday for a return to full trading volumes in the euro to dollar pair.

Fundamental Forex Analysis – Euro To Dollar 25th August 2009

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Monday, August 24th, 2009

Fundamental Forex Analysis – Euro Dollar

Tomorrows fundamental news on the economic calendar starts early for Europe with the release of the Final GDP numbers for Germany, always an important set of data, but as these figures have already been released to the market in the Preliminary version ten days earlier, their impact on the market tends to be muted and tomorrow will be no exception – the forecast is for the figures to be the same as last time at 0.3%, and comes on the back of the preliminary numbers which surprised many economists and analysts with a surprising and unexpected growth figure which may have since queried as being correct, so tomorrow should be interesting. The only other item of fundamental news for Europe is released deep in the forex trading session with the NBB Business climate from Belgium, data compiled by the Bank of Belgium, and yet another composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, services and trade related firms. The forecast for tomorrow is for a slight improvement on last month’s figures at -19.7 against a previous of -22.8, so again we are limping towards the break even point at zero at which point the indicator suggest market condition are improving. Should the number be better than expected then this could be good news for the Euro.

For the US dollar we have a much busier day than yesterday, with four items of news of which the most important is the CB Consumer Confidence Index, followed by the S & P, the HPI and Richmond Manufacturing Index in order of importance. The CB Consumer confidence is a composite index based on a survey of around 5000 households who are asked to rate current market conditions,including labour availability, business conditions, and the overall economy, and the reason it is so important is that is gives us a snapshot of consumer spending which in turn will indicate any future upturn in the economy. Whilst a positive number tomorrow would normally be good for the US dollar, the reverse has been true in the last few months with bad news triggering the buying of US bonds. The forecast for tomorrow is 48.1 against a previous of 46.6, and will be eagerly awaited by the markets for any fundamental forex analysis of the numbers.

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Archive for euro dollar – Page 2

Euro To Dollar – Fundamental News This Week

Daily Currency News : Euro to Dollar 1 Oct 2009

Euro to Dollar Daily Currency News 30 Sep 2009

Euro To Dollar – Fundamental Forex Analysis 13th September 2009

Fundamental Forex Analysis – Euro To Dollar 7th September 2009

Fundamental Forex Analysis – Euro To Dollar 25th August 2009

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