Home » Euro to Dollar News » Euro To Dollar – Weekly Outlook 9th March 2009

Euro To Dollar – Weekly Outlook 9th March 2009

The fundamental news for the euro dollar gets underway on Tuesday, with virtually no news of any significance being released today, either in the US or in Europe, with markets still absorbing the NFP figures on Friday, showing that over 8% of the workforce is now unemployed, the worst situation for employment for over 25 years. Under normal circumstances these figures would be considered shocking, but it is a sign of the timesĀ  that the markets simply absorbed the figures, and moved on!

The only item on Tuesday that is likely to have any significant impact is a speech by FED reserve chairman Ben Bernanke ( yes him again!) who is due to deliver a speech titled “Financial Reform to Address Systemic Risk” at the Council on Foreign Relations, in Washington DC. As usual, there will be a question and answer session immediately afterwards, which is likely to be when we see volatility in the markets, as unscripted questions often lead to revealing answers. As the head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person, and both traders and markets scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. Whether this has the same relevance at the moment is debatable, as the economy and economic news is on the front page every day, so any comments may carry less weight with so much ongoing analysis anyway.

There are several news items due for release on Wednesday, but none are likely to have any significant impact on the euro dollar, and these are all covered for you in the economic calendar, with the daily updates on the latest currency news TV channel.

The big news items on Thursday are in the US, with several important sets of data being released simultaneously, namely Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims. Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding cars, and if the numbers are better than forecast then this is generally good for the home currency, in this case the US dollar. As car sales normally account for around 20% of retail sales they tend to distort the underlying trend, but in the current economy where auto sales have fallen off a cliff recently, this may have less of an effect, reducing the impact of these numbers. The forecast is -0.1% against a previous of 0.9%. The Retail Sales figures include sales across all sectors, and the forecast is for -0.5% against a previous of 1.0% last time. Finally we have Unemployment Claims, indicating theĀ  number of people who have filed for unemployment insurance on the week – again some horrible figures are likley at around 640,000, but given the fact that we have just seen the NFP figures on Friday, these are unlikely to come as a great surprise or to have any dramatic effect on the market.

Friday 13th, sees the US Trade Balance first, followed by the UoM sentiment indicator 90 minutes later.The US Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported and the forecast is for -38.4B against a previous of -39.9B. If the actual is better than forecast then this is generally perceived as good for the US currency, but as always we do have to remember that with so much bad news about, any data is all relative at the moment! The week rounds of with the University of Michigan report, which is a sentiment survey of aro Bernanke, und 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions. Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The forecast is 49.9 against a previous of 56.3.

As always all the news is covered for you on the live economic calendar, with the live news feed providing the latest information. The fundamental news releases are also covered daily in the latest currency news video which is updated three times a day. Finally if you are looking for help in finding or choosing an ECN broker, please just follow the link for more details. All the latest prices are now available on the live currency charts.