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Euro To Dollar – Non Farm Payroll Dominates Today

There is really only one piece of fundamental news on the economic calendar for today for the euro to dollar currency pair, and this is of course the Non Farm Payroll data due out in the US later today. The median forecast for this afternoon is for a further loss of jobs to the tune of 520,000, a truly awful number, and yet one the markets are becoming inured to, and if correct, would be marginally better than last time at -539,000 jobs lost in the previous month. However, these figures have to be viewed in the context of an overall trend, and if we look at the positives of these numbers, they are significantly better than the, -741,000,  -651,000 and -663,000 of a few months ago, suggesting perhaps, that we have reached a bottom in the downwards spiral of job losses in the US. The NFP data from the Labor Department is due out at 8.30 ( US time) and economists’ estimates range for the unemployment data range from 9% to 9.4% , against a rate of 8.9% in April. The rate was at 8.9 percent in April and forecasts for the numbers of jobs lost vary from -450,000 to -600,000 with the world’s largest economy having already lost nearly 6 million jobs since the start of the recession in 2007.

The only other item of fundamental news which may affect the euro to dollar today is a speech by Trichet in Warsaw, where he is due to speak at the International Conference organized by the National Bank of Poland, in Warsaw later this morning. As always his comments will be closely watched for any signals, particularly as his speech follows closely on the heels of the ECB rate decision in Europe yesterday.

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