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Euro To Dollar – 4th March 2009

Following the main news yesterday which was Ben Bernanke’s statement to the Senate Committee, which failed to have any significant impact on the markets, today is all about the ADP Non Farm Employment Change figures which are due for release this morning in the US. In many ways these are more important than the NFP figures due on Friday, often providing an early snapshot of the likely figures, and hence their impact on the markets can be dramatic. The data estimates the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government, and if the actual is better than forecast then this is generally considered a positive signal, and therefore good news for the home currency, in this case the US dollar. As I have already mentioned the numbers lead the government-released employment data¬† of Non Farm Payroll by 2 days, and over time has slowly demonstrated its predictive qualities since its debut in the fundamental news in May 2006. As with the NFP, these figures are released monthly and will be the key economic news for today. The forecast is for a figure of -620,000 against a previous of -522,000, so a worsening picture for the economy as a whole.

These figures will be followed 90 minutes later by the ISM Non Manufacturing PMI data, an important piece of fundamental news in its own right, but probably overshadowed today by the ADP numbers. The PMI index is based on a survey of purchasing managers, excluding those in manufacturing, and represent their views on several aspects of business including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. These are them consolidated into the index, and a figure above 50 indicates an economy in expansion and below this figure, one in contraction, with a forecast for this afternoon of 41.2 – the previous was 42.9.

With the euro dollar having traded sideways for the last few weeks, today’s numbers could inject some volatility into the pair and a breakout from the current trading range. With the technical perspective looking bearish I would expect a break to the downside in due course. All the other economic news is covered for you in the economic calendar, on the latest currency news video, or in the live news feed, and I’m sure your ECN broker will bring you the latest numbers as they hit the screen.