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Euro Dollar – Non Farm Payroll

Today there is really only one piece of fundamental news on the horizon for the euro dollar pair, and that’s Non Farm Payroll ( NFP ) due out later today in the US, and released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor (U.S.).  The figures represent the monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls is the most closely watched indicator with regard to employment and is considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Such a distinction makes the NFP figure highly significant, given the importance of labor to the US economy. Specifically, political pressures come into play, as the Fed is responsible for keeping employment in a healthy range and utilizes interest rate changes to do so. A surge in new Non-farm Payrolls suggests rising employment and potential inflation pressures, which the Fed often counters with rate increases. On the other hand, a consistent decline in Non-farm Employment suggests a slowing economy, which makes a decline in rates more likely. The forecast for today is for -650,000 against a previous of -598,000, so a worsening situation is expected.

An excellent guide to today’s figures is provided by the ADP data which was released on Wednesday, and since its introduction in 2006, has proved to be remarkably accurate in forecasting the NFP figures two days later. In case you missed them, these came in at -697,000 against a forecast of -620,000, suggesting that the figures today will be worse than expected. If the figures are better than expected ( which seems unlikely) then this would generally be good for the US dollar. All today’s news is covered in the live news feed, on the economic calendar, or on the TV channel video for the latest currency news.