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Euro Dollar News – 3rd March 2009

The fundamental news today for the euro dollar pair, will be dominated by yet another speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, this time to the Senate Budget Committee, when he will be talking about the economic outlook and in particular the budget to cope with the current crisis. As we saw last week, a small word such as ‘if’ can have a huge impact on the market ( remember his words were in relation to the prospect of a recovery in 2009), and one again we could see significant volatility in the markets once he starts to speak, but as always it can be the following question and answer session that is often more revealing than the prepared statement. As head of the Federal Reserve, Bernanke’s words have the power to move the marketsĀ  – so you have been warned! At the same time as Bernanke starts to speak, the Pending Home sales become the latest set of economic news results to be released, and show the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold, but still awaiting the closing transaction, and excluding new homes. As such it is generally considered to be a leading indicator of economic health as the effects are like the ripples in a pond, affecting many markets in both the service and manufacturing sectors. If the actual is better than forecast then this is good for the economy and hence the US dollar, but I suspect that this news will be overshadowed by the Bernanke speech.

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