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Euro Dollar – Fundamental News Tuesday 10th March

With five news releases out this morning in Europe already, the morning has got off to a busy start, but once again the data released has had little impact on the euro dollar as it continues to move sideways in early trading, with many commentators now suggesting that the only country keeping the euro afloat at the moment being Germany.

The main item of news today is in the US with federal reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke entitled:  “Financial Reform To Address Systemic Risk” – stables, doors and horses spring to mind.  As always volatility in the markets may appear in any question and answer session following delivery of his speech.

A feature of last week’s interest rate by the ECB to 1.5% was the extent to which Trichet slashed growth and inflation forecasts for both this year and next, eventually giving up on the rosy predictions they have been clinging onto for far too long and, in the face of overwhelming evidence, that Europe (and the Euro) is in deep, deep trouble.  Indeed the cftc data to 3rd March indicated that the net short positions for the euro had almost doubled to 19,431 contracts, an increase of over 9,500 on the prior week.

This would suggest that a significant correction in the Euro is likely in the next few months and many commentators believe this is largely as a result of the ECB’s failure to get to grips with the economic problems in Europe, and Eastern Europe in particular.

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