Archive for Euro to Dollar Daily Currency News

Euro to Dollar Fundamental News 8 Feb 2010

Monday, February 8th, 2010

With no news releases for either the euro or dollar today markets have continued to focus on the issue of sovereign debt and speculate whether the euro can survive this current (which of course it will).  Moreover, the remainder of the week is a relatively thin one for tier one fundamental news both in Europe and the US.  Tomorrow, Tuesday, there is virtually nothing other than some some minor news from Germany with final CPI and trade balance figures, the first will have little impact as the preliminary were released 15 days ago.  The same applies to the US.

Wednesday is a little more exciting with French industrial production figures due for release in the morning with the number forecast at 0.6%%, down on last month’s figure of 1.1%.  This data is generally considered to be a leading indicator and should the actual be better than forecast then this may provide a small lift for the euro.  The more important numbers for the euro to dollar come in the afternoon in the US with the release of the trade balance figures which are forecast to come in at -35.7bn against a previous of -36.4bn suggesting that there is a small fall in exports and the only other item of key news comes from Capitol Hill where Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to testify to the financial services committee on the unwinding of the federal reserve emergency funding (aka the “punchbowl”).  The testimony, as usual, comes in two parts with the first in a prepared statement followed by a question and answer session.  It is during this question and answer session that we can expect a degree of volatility.

Thursday’s key numbers are once again in the US preceded in the morning by the ECB monthly bulletin which provides data on the latest interest decision along with a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.  In the afternoon we have three items from the US starting with core retail sales, retail sales and finally unemployment claims.  The first two are forecast to come in at 0.4%, both moving into positive territory following last month’s negative figures and the unemployment claims are also forecast to show an improvement, down 22k to 458k.  If these numbers come in as expected then this could add a further boost to the dollar.

The week rounds off with some important data for the euro with the release of preliminary German GDP.  As Europe’s largest economy this number has the power to move the market and the forecast this time is for 0.1% against a previous of 0.7% suggesting that the German economy probably stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2009, ending a dismal year.   Finally we have the preliminary UoM (University of Michigan) consumer sentiment number which provides a view on economic sentiment based on a survey of around 500 consumers with a forecast for 74.7 against a previous of 74.4.

What is one of the best retail forex trading platforms?  In my view it is Metatrader 4.  Advanced, powerful & intuitive it now comes with ECN execution, so you can happily scalp away without broker or dealer intervention.  Just download your free demo copy of MT4 by following this link – download metatrader free –  and get started today.  Don’t forget to follow my daily posts for updates and analysis of the forex markets to help you with your forex trading – so good luck and good trading.

Euro To Dollar – Currency Trading News

Monday, January 25th, 2010

Just like last week, the forex trading calendar for today starts very quietly, with virtually no news in Europe other than a minor piece of fundamental news in the GFK German consumer sentiment index which came in on target at 3.2,.The only news item  of note for the US in the form of Existing Home Sales which are forecast to fall from last time to 5.95m down from 6.54m, a figure which represents the number of new home sales in the previous month which is then annualized – and should the number be better than forecast then this could be good for the US dollar although any good news effect may be tempered with the fall from last month.

Tuesday sees  raft economic and fundamental news for the euro to dollar currency pair,  with the main number to watch being the German IFO Business index which is forecast at 95.2, marginally better than last time at 95.2 up from 94.7. This is generally considered to be a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment, and if the number is better than expected then look for a positive reaction from the euro currency exchange rate. The principle news in the afternoon for the US currency is the CB Consumer Confidence index, another sentiment indicator, which is based on a survey of around 5,000 US households, and which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation. The forecast is for a minor improvement on last time and once again if the number is better than expected look for a positive move in the home currency, this time the US dollar.

Wednesday sees little important fundamental news in Europe with the forex markets waiting for the main event, the FED funds rate decision and statement due in the evening UK time. It is very unlikely that there will be any change in the 0.25% interest rate, but the statement as always from the FOMC will be closely watched for any signals of future intent with regard to increasing the base rate in due course. The key will be whether the FED signal that this is likely to happen sooner than expected, or whether the flow of economic news has dampened any short term optimism. If so then expect the US dollar to weaken on the statement as a continuation of the recent short term rally in the US dollar will only be supported longer term if the prospect of higher rates sooner rather than later is a realistic expectation. If not then the dollar will continue to be the low yielding currency of the carry trade, if and until rates start to move, or at least a rate move is signalled by the FED.

Thursday sees a quiet day once again for Europe in the morning, as now doubt the currency markets and the euro to dollar will continue to react to the FED decision, with the afternoon forex trading session dominated by the Core Durable Goods data and unemployment Claims. The first is forecast at o.4% down from last time at 2.0%, with unemployment claims for the week forecast to fall to 451,000 against a previous of 482,000. The Core data is generally considered to be a leading indicator of production – rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders, and if better then expected then expect the US dollar to strengthen, but this could be counterbalanced by the unemployment data which could send the US dollar lower if worse than expected.

The main item of fundamental news to watch out for on Friday for the euro to dollar is of course the US Advance GDP, forecast at 4.5% against a previous of 2.2%. This is the first of three releases of the GDP numbers, the first being the Advance, the second the Preliminary, followed by the Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact on the forex markets as it provides the broadest measure of economic activity and is a primary gauge of the health of the US economy. The number on Friday is expected to be “eye popping” so watch out for some volatile reactions in the currency markets as they absorb the details of this one!

What is one of the best retail forex trading platforms?  In my view it is Metatrader 4.  Advanced, powerful & intuitive it now comes with ECN execution, so you can happily scalp away without broker or dealer intervention.  Just download your free demo copy of MT4 by following this link – download metatrader free –  and get started today.  Don’t forget to follow my daily posts for updates and analysis of the forex markets to help you with your forex trading – so good luck and good trading.

Euro to Dollar Daily Currency News 30 Sep 2009

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

Whilst most of the fundamental news items on the economic calendar for the euro to dollar classified as medium impact the sheer number may cause some reaction later in the currency trading session.  The day stats in Europe with a speech from Deutsche Bundesbank President Weber who is also a voting member of the ECB and considered one of its most influential members.  Currency traders pay close attention to his words as he is known for dropping subtle clues as to the Bank’s thinking on interest rates and monetary policy.   During his speech the German unemployment change figures are expected and forecast at 19k against a previous of -5k.  This item of fundamental news is sometimes leaked early and is prone to inaccuracy but currency traders care because although considered a lagging indicator the number of unemployed is important as it is taken a sign of the overall health of the economy.   Later we have the Eurozone CPI Flash estimate forecast at -0.2% (same as previous) and the Italian preliminary CPI forecast at 0.0% against a previous of 0.3%.  Later this evening there is also a speech from ECB Chairman Jean Claude Trichet entitled “What should be the EU legislative agenda in the coming years taking into account lessons of the financial crisis?”

The daily currency news then shifts to the US where the most important item of fundamental news is the ADP non farm employment change which is expected to come in at -200k against a forecast of -298k.  This number has become increasingly important, not least because of its accuracy and can give traders an early insight of what is likely to come in on Friday’s NFP numbers.  Also as an important leading indicator of consumer spending (the more people employed the more they are likely to spend) it is easy to understand why currency traders place so much importance on this number.  The figure released estimates the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government and is collated from the payroll services of many US corporations – therefore a much truer picture of what is going on in the “real” economy.

Daily currency news for the euro to dollar then ends in the US with a raft of middle tier releases starting with final q/q GDP figures, final GDP Price Index, Chicago PMI and the Crude Oil Inventories.  The day ends with speeches from 2 members of the FOMC – Dennis Lockhart at the South Alabama Mitchell College in Mobile and audience questions are expected.  His topic is the outlook for the US economy.    Later FOMC Gov Donald Kohn is taking part in a panel discussion about central bank exit strategies policies at the Cato Institute in Washington and again audience questions are expected.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.